Even if you aren't among those who normally make New
Year's resolutionsand keep themthis may
be a time when you will want to make and keep them in the
year to come.
With the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index up
1.05 percent through October and the average U.S. taxable
investment grade bond returning an almost identical 1.12
percent, as indicated by the Citigroup Broad Investment-Grade
Bond Index, barring a year-end rally, 2005 could wind up
as a flat year in both stock and bond markets.
Whether the ultimate results are flat, up a little, or down
a little, you could be thinking of adjusting your portfolio
to improve its performance by taking bigger risksperhaps
more than would be appropriate for you. Given the potential
losses inherent in such a strategy, the following resolutions
may be helpful as you consider your year-end strategy:
Allocate your assets among bonds, stocks,
money market instruments, and funds in proportions that reflect
the amount of risk necessary to achieve your goals. In some
cases, that may mean that portfolios don't need to
be or shouldn't be more conservative 'just because' someone
is older. It should really be about allocating for your particular
goals and needs, not 'just because' you are at
a certain age or spending level. Disregard recommendations
of all-purpose model portfolios' asset allocations.
They may indicate how various investment strategists feel
about the near-term attractiveness of stocks and bonds but
weren't offered with your particular investment goals
and risk tolerance in mind. (Do consider so-called lifestyle
or lifecycle funds. If you don't have the time or inclination
to do the necessary initial portfolio construction, disciplined
re-balancing and continuous re-alignment as you approach
your goal, these will perform these functions.)
Have realistic expectations of performance. The
years of exceptional annual returns for stocks, on the average,
are a memory now. Annual returns averaging below the long-term
average of about 10 percent annually seem more likely in
the foreseeable future. Whatever they are, the average returns
for balanced portfolios are likely to be single-digit.
Resolve to maximize your net returns by
holding down (a) excessive commissions when buying or selling
individual securities and (b) excessive expenses when investing
in mutual funds. When investing in taxable accounts, be mindful
of the tax consequences of owning mutual funds that make
large taxable distributions of realized short- and long-term
capital
gains. Recent research published in the Journal of Financial
Planning suggests that funds with low turnover and long-term
capital gains still belong in taxable accounts and that funds
that have large amounts of short-term gains distributions
should be placed in retirement accounts, such as IRAs, 401(k)s,
or other tax-deferred accounts.
When investing for income, resist the temptation
of chasing high yields. Higher yields are generally
associated with higher risk, and with some investments
what appears to be yield may actually be a return of capital.
Don't forget bond funds. Tax-exempt
state or local government bonds or "municipal" bond
funds, whose yields are usually lower than those of taxable
issues of comparable credit quality and maturity, may pay
you more than you'd have left after taxes when investing
in the comparable taxable securities. Do the math: compare
your prospective after-tax income from the taxable securities
with what you'd get from the tax-exempts.
Accept that there is no shortcut to mutual fund
selection. Whether you do it or an adviser does
it for you, funds have to be studiedprimarily in
funds' own, SEC-mandated literatureto determine
their suitability. Data indicating superior past performancewhich
funds must report in accordance with SEC regulations and
update periodicallydon't assure you of superior
future performance. Neither do ratings, such as the 5-star
ratings for risk-adjusted performance calculated by Morningstar.
They may provide you an additional dimension of past performance,
but, as Morningstar has long reminded investors, they don't
have predictive value. Such data constitute the beginning,
not the end, of the selection process, indicating which
funds' literature you might study.
Don't be too impressed by high absolute returns. Compare
past performance data for an equity fund with performance
data for the same periods for the S&P, Russell, or other
indexfor the broad stock market, for large or small
companies' stocks, for growth or value stocks, and
so onwhich the fund management has chosen as its benchmark.
You may also compare them with data for peer funds computed
by Lipper or Morningstar. By focusing on relative returns,
such comparisons tell you whether the fund has performed
as well as could be expected, better, or worse, given the
stocks it owns.
Always remember that stocks and bondsand the
funds that own themare long-term investments, requiring
patience and the ability to ride out market volatility. Stocks
and stock funds are unlikely to be, as magazine covers will
have you believe, "the 10 (whatever) you must own in
2006."