By
Sherrill St. Germain
Q: I was just poking around a Web site that
rates stocks, and saw that they recommend avoiding one of
the exchange-traded funds (ETFs)
you recommended for us. Should we be nervous?
A: I'd say not, and here's why. This
particular Web site advocates a "time the market" investment
philosophy, and it seems that they are "bearish" on
this asset class (US large company stocks) at this point
in time, i.e. they think it's going to go down from
where it's currently valued. Because the ETF
I recommended contains only US large company stocks,
they believe that it (and all other funds with that same
investment objective) will go down in the near term and so
they recommend avoiding it.
Unfortunately, markets are notorious for defying expectations, even those that
are based on the most thorough research and analysis. So I don't
try to predict what markets will do in the near term. And I didn't recommend
this investment because I thought it was going to go up in the near term, but
rather because I thought it would be a good investment for the long term, such
as the 15+ year timeframe for which you're investing. I still do, and I
bet you do too. But, of course, there are no guarantees, and that's
why this investment is only one of many components of your diversified portfolio.
By the way, studies show that individual investors who try to time the market
usually end up buying high and selling low, because by the time they have information
and the wherewithal to act on it, it's already out of date (especially as compared
to "the big guys" such as institutional investors, although they too
often guess wrong.) That's why I don't recommend market timing, but rather time
in the market. For more on this topic, check out this MSN Money article: More
Evidence That Buy-and-Hold Wins.