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Has my fund gone bad?
By Sherrill St. Germain

Q: I was just poking around a Web site that rates stocks, and saw that they recommend avoiding one of the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) you recommended for us.  Should we be nervous?

A: I'd say not, and here's why.  This particular Web site advocates a "time the market" investment philosophy, and it seems that they are "bearish" on this asset class (US large company stocks) at this point in time, i.e. they think it's going to go down from where it's currently valued.  Because the ETF I recommended contains only US large company stocks, they believe that it (and all other funds with that same investment objective) will go down in the near term and so they recommend avoiding it.

Unfortunately, markets are notorious for defying expectations, even those that are based on the most thorough research and analysis.  So I don't try to predict what markets will do in the near term.  And I didn't recommend this investment because I thought it was going to go up in the near term, but rather because I thought it would be a good investment for the long term, such as the 15+ year timeframe for which you're investing.  I still do, and I bet you do too.  But, of course, there are no guarantees, and that's why this investment is only one of many components of your diversified portfolio. 

By the way, studies show that individual investors who try to time the market usually end up buying high and selling low, because by the time they have information and the wherewithal to act on it, it's already out of date (especially as compared to "the big guys" such as institutional investors, although they too often guess wrong.) That's why I don't recommend market timing, but rather time in the market.  For more on this topic, check out this MSN Money article: More Evidence That Buy-and-Hold Wins.



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