The federal government announced in mid-January that consumer
prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, rose 3.3
percent in 2004—the highest increase since 2000. But
do you know what your personal inflation rate was for 2004?
Or why it’s important to gauge how much it rose? Or
what you can do about it?
Your personal CPI and the national CPI are not likely the
same. They may not even be close. As the Bureau of Labor
Statistics notes, the national CPI “seldom mirrors
a particular consumer’s experience.”
The CPI is a measure calculated by the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics of the average change in prices paid by urban
consumers for a fixed market basket of goods and services.
The measure is taken monthly, then annualized for the previous
12 months.
There’s been much debate about how the CPI is calculated
and whether it accurately reflects true price changes. Regardless,
it’s a widely used number. Social Security uses it
to adjust benefit payments to retirees, it’s a bargaining
chip in wage negotiations, and the Federal Reserve uses it
as one of many indicators in deciding whether to raise or
lower interest rates (lately, the Fed has been raising interest
rates in order to ward off more serious inflation).
But what does the national CPI say about your personal cost
of living? Probably not a lot.
Take, for example, three major expenses for many families:
housing, medical care, and college. Some critics say the
national CPI underestimates the impact of these expenses.
But beyond that, your personal CPI may differ dramatically
from the national CPI depending on where you live and how
much these three expenses figure into your cost of living.
The housing component of the national CPI average, which
is based primarily on changes in rents and which factors
out equity gains for homes, came in a mere 2.6 percent in
2004. So for renters, the national CPI might be closer to
their personal CPI, but not for someone buying a home.
According to the National Association of Realtors, the national
median existing-home price rose 8.8 percent in 2004. And
in nearly half of 129 metropolitan areas surveyed, home prices
rose in double-digit figures, including a 47 percent increase
in Las Vegas and better than 30 percent increases in certain
markets in California and Florida.
Yet in some regions, prices barely budged. Even within a
specific market, price increases can vary depending on the
price range of the type of house you’re looking for.
While the national CPI’s medical-care component rose
only 4.2 percent in 2004, the reality for many people is
that the cost of medical care rose dramatically faster. This
is especially true for older people who typically spend much
more on health care than the average person.
Families with children in college also will have a different—typically
higher—personal CPI than families who don’t have
children in college. The “education and communication” component
of the national CPI showed a mere 1.5 percent increase. Yet
the average increase for the cost of tuition for in-state
students at four-year public colleges for the 2004–2005
school year rose 10.5 percent, according to the College Board.
That came on the heels of a 13 percent rise the year before.
All of this illustrates that your personal consumer price
index may be quite different from the national CPI, and you
need to plan your finances accordingly. In some cases, personal
CPIs may be lower than the national average, but for others
it will be higher. What can you do with your own CPI?
Plan for it. When calculating your budget or perhaps future
retirement needs, be sure to take into account your inflation
rate.
Trim high inflation areas. You may have the flexibility
to trim expenses in some areas. If necessary, you can send
your child to a less expensive college or you can buy a less
expensive home. It’s more difficult for some expenses
such as medical care, though one can make savings there,
too.
Review your investments. A diversified portfolio can go
a long way toward helping combat inflation. Assuming you
have ample investment time ahead—say at least five
to ten years—you should consider investments that have
a history of outpacing the rate of inflation, such as stocks
and investment real estate.